热点 · AI 估计 · 非真实赔率

截至2026年12月31日,是否会有以色列政党领导人被正式授权组建新政府?

概率走势
79%83%87%当前 83%
结算 2026-12-31以以色列总统办公室或官方公告为准,确认是否正式授权某政党领导人组建政府。
热点· 12月31日

截至2026年12月31日,是否会有以色列政党领导人被正式授权组建新政府?

市价撮合
金额
分
合计100 分
押对可得💵 120 分
点选项即可登录并下注来源 ↗
盘口解读AI 估计 · 非真实赔率
为什么是 83%

总统已接受认证结果并启动磋商,按以色列惯例授权组阁是标准程序,但联合谈判可能拖延或陷入僵局,故概率较高但非确定。

证据 · 新闻NBC News · 昨天
以色列总统接受选举认证结果,将就组建新政府展开磋商

以色列总统赫尔佐格周三接受了上周选举的认证结果,并表示将开始与各党派代表就组建新政府进行磋商。

查看原文 ↗
▾展开完整报道

Listen to this article with a free profile00:0000:00Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed Arab parties used foreign backing to “steal” the elections, without providing evidence.Ahmad Gharabli / AFP via GettyShareAdd NBC News to GoogleNov. 4, 2026, 6:20 AM EST / Updated Nov. 4, 2026, 7:39 AM EST / Source: The Associated PressBy The Associated PressIsraeli President Isaac Herzog on Wednesday accepted as legally binding the certified results from last week’s parliamentary elections and said he would begin consultations with party representatives on the formation of a new government.

Herzog’s acceptance of the results as valid dealt a blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s effort to discredit the vote in which his religious-nationalist bloc lost its majority in the Israeli parliament, or Knesset, while Arab-led parties made historic gains.

Netanyahu and his supporters have repeatedly made unsubstantiated claims that the Arab-led parties had “stolen” the election, possibly with foreign assistance.

The Israeli president is required now to sit down with various party leaders to determine whom to name as prime minister-designate — a process that could potentially bring Netanyahu’s opponents to power.

Netanyahu at an election night rally in Jerusalem on Oct. 28.John Wessels / AFP via GettyIsrael’s election commission said earlier on Wednesday that after a thorough investigation of all parties’ claims of fraud it had found “no evidence of irregularities that compromised the integrity of the election or affected its results.”

Netanyahu’s Likud party did not respond to a request for comment.

FOR SUBSCRIBERSDemocratic Senate set to thwart Trump’s Supreme Court and judicial appointmentsFOR SUBSCRIBERSHow an unlikely Virginia law could offer a path to justice after a Texas campus sexual assaultFOR SUBSCRIBERSNewly elected Democrats could become 2028 power brokersFOR SUBSCRIBERSStudents’ scrolling thousands of YouTube videos shows need for stricter rules, officials sayFOR SUBSCRIBERSEven before election, Trump’s White House was prepping for Democratic investigationsFOR SUBSCRIBERSAnger over GOP education agenda fueled blue sweeps in Texas, advocates sayFOR SUBSCRIBERSInside the miscalculations that cost Trump control of CongressFOR SUBSCRIBERSWhat Democrats plan to do with House majority: Investigate Trump and tackle affordabilityFOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump discussing possible Hegseth replacements, sources say FOR SUBSCRIBERSMaps: How the vote shifted from the 2024 presidential election to 2026FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe dynamics behind the Democrats’ midterm drubbing of RepublicansFOR SUBSCRIBERSTexas election upset means ‘MAGA’s own private law firm’ will be led by a DemocratFOR SUBSCRIBERSElon Musk moved to Texas to escape Democrats — now they’re in chargeFOR SUBSCRIBERSVance tiptoes out on his own after a midterm wipeoutFOR SUBSCRIBERSData centers rejected by voters across the country — challenging the AI boomSlide 1 of 1For SubscribersFOR SUBSCRIBERSDemocratic Senate set to thwart Trump’s Supreme Court and judicial appointmentsFOR SUBSCRIBERSHow an unlikely Virginia law could offer a path to justice after a Texas campus sexual assaultFOR SUBSCRIBERSNewly elected Democrats could become 2028 power brokersFOR SUBSCRIBERSStudents’ scrolling thousands of YouTube videos shows need for stricter rules, officials sayFOR SUBSCRIBERSEven before election, Trump’s White House was prepping for Democratic investigationsFOR SUBSCRIBERSAnger over GOP education agenda fueled blue sweeps in Texas, advocates sayFOR SUBSCRIBERSInside the miscalculations that cost Trump control of CongressFOR SUBSCRIBERSWhat Democrats plan to do with House majority: Investigate Trump and tackle affordabilityFOR SUBSCRIBERSTrump discussing possible Hegseth replacements, sources say FOR SUBSCRIBERSMaps: How the vote shifted from the 2024 presidential election to 2026FOR SUBSCRIBERSThe dynamics behind the Democrats’ midterm drubbing of RepublicansFOR SUBSCRIBERSTexas election upset means ‘MAGA’s own private law firm’ will be led by a DemocratFOR SUBSCRIBERSElon Musk moved to Texas to escape Democrats — now they’re in chargeFOR SUBSCRIBERSVance tiptoes out on his own after a midterm wipeoutFOR SUBSCRIBERSData centers rejected by voters across the country — challenging the AI boomSlide 1 of 1A separate investigation by the Shin Bet intelligence service, which is headed by David Zini, a Netanyahu appointee and loyalist, into allegations of foreign interference in the election is still ongoing.

In a private meeting Wednesday of the election committee’s members, its head, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, read out an intelligence assessment from the Shin Bet saying the agency believed there had been a “widespread phenomenon involving the influx of substantial funds into Israel from foreign states,” including from countries hostile toward Israel.

The Shin Bet provided no evidence to explain its assertion. The Associated Press obtained a transcript of the assessment from a person who attended the meeting. The person requested anonymity to discuss a closed-door meeting.

The committee has previously said that while claims about foreign actors seeking to influence the election are serious and under investigation, it does not believe that any such interference affected the results — even if it had happened.

评论 · 3
C
Caleb30分钟前

我没那么确定,现在市场波动太大了。

L
Liam2小时前

盘口已经反应得差不多了,进场性价比不高。

S
Sofia3小时前

新闻里第 3 点才是关键,市场好像还没充分定价。

评论与发帖将在 M2 接入真实账户后开放