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Al Jazeera
@al jazeera · 3天前

意大利将派军舰护航曼德海峡航运

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意大利国防部长警告,若曼德海峡无法通行将造成严重经济后果,意方决定绕过欧盟的拖延,自行部署军舰保护航运。

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盘口解读AI 估计 · 非真实赔率
为什么是 83%

国防部长已公开宣布且绕过欧盟拖延,部署政治意愿强,但后勤与外交协调可能延迟,故概率较高但非确定。

怎么算赢

以意大利国防部或主流媒体(如路透社、安莎社)公开报道的军舰部署或抵达为准。

题材 · 截止

政治 · 结算 2026-12-18

概率走势
83%85%87%当前 83%

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xwhatsapp-strokecopylinkgoogleAdd Al Jazeera on GoogleinfoA commercial vessel is anchored off Yemen's coast at Bab al-Mandeb, in the straits connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean on September 12, 2026 [AFP]By Al Jazeera Staff and DPAPublished On 18 Sep 202618 Sep 2026Italy will deploy warships to ensure safe passage for its commercial vessels through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, Defence Minister Guido Crosetto said, adding that Rome would not wait for a joint decision from the European Union.

“We have the capabilities to protect the passage,” Crosetto said, warning that if the waterway became impassable, the economic consequences would be severe.

The Italian defence minister said that Rome “must not allow bureaucratic delays in decision-making to exacerbate an already complex situation”.

Bab al-Mandeb links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, forming one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors between Europe and Asia and a critical route for oil, gas and container traffic heading to and from the Suez Canal.

Roughly 12 to 15 percent of global trade has historically passed through the narrow waterway, which separates Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea on the African side and is only about 30km (19 miles) wide at its narrowest point.

The strait’s importance has grown sharply since Iran effectively seized control of the Strait of Hormuz earlier this year amid its war with the United States and Israel, choking off the world’s most important oil chokepoint and pushing much of the Gulf’s crude exports towards alternative routes.

Saudi Arabia, in particular, has increasingly relied on pipelines and Red Sea shipping to bypass Hormuz altogether, making the Bab al-Mandeb strait one of the last major arteries still open to Gulf oil reaching global markets.

Control of the strait has been contested for years, as Yemen’s government, Houthi rebels and, at times, forces in the region have held stretches of its coastline at different points since the war in Yemen began in 2015.

The significance of the strait has been hit dramatically in the past few weeks, when the Iran-backed Houthi movement launched a rapid offensive that brought the entirety of Yemen’s western Red Sea coast under its control, including several strategically located islands.

评论 · 3
C
Caleb30分钟前

我没那么确定,现在市场波动太大了。

L
Liam2小时前

盘口已经反应得差不多了,进场性价比不高。

S
Sofia3小时前

新闻里第 3 点才是关键,市场好像还没充分定价。

评论与发帖将在 M2 接入真实账户后开放