政治 · AI 估计 · 非真实赔率

截至2027年1月31日,美国是否与至少一个东盟成员国正式签署或宣布加入赫格塞思提出的新防务合作框架?

概率走势
39%43%46%当前 37%
结算 2027-01-31以美国国防部或东盟成员国政府公开声明/签署文件为准,需明确指向该新框架。
热点· 1月31日

截至2027年1月31日,美国是否与至少一个东盟成员国正式签署或宣布加入赫格塞思提出的新防务合作框架?

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盘口解读AI 估计 · 非真实赔率
为什么是 37%

提议处于早期阶段,东盟国家惯于平衡中美,三个月内落地正式签署的概率偏低但非极小。

证据 · 新闻VOA - Voice of America English News · 6天前
美防长提新防务框架,印尼与中国启动联合训练

美国战争部长赫格塞思提出与东南亚国家建立新防务合作框架;与此同时,印尼在维持与美国安全伙伴关系的同时,与中国开展反恐训练。

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Editor's note: this story was translated from the original VOA Mandarin article.

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth proposed a new defense cooperation framework with Southeast Asian nations Wednesday, as Indonesia conducts counterterrorism training with China while also maintaining its security partnership with the United States.Speaking to ASEAN defense ministers in Cebu, Philippines, Hegseth called for closer maritime cooperation and stronger regional militaries capable of defending their sovereignty.“Serious partners train together, learn together, plan together, and build the confidence and competence necessary to prevent conflict,” he said.His remarks came a day after Chinese and Indonesian troops opened their “Sharp Knife 2026” joint army training in Guangzhou, according to China’s Defense Ministry. The exercise is scheduled to continue through early November.Hegseth described Washington’s approach as “strong, quiet and clear”—intended to deter coercion and aggression while avoiding unnecessary escalation.

He said the United States is willing to work with Southeast Asian countries based on their circumstances, priorities and shared interests.“We're not going to agree on everything, nor do we need to,” he said. “But an agreement on the fundamentals is enough to support practical cooperation where our shared interests are overlapping and are clear, and that's the type of cooperation the Department of War will continue to pursue with our ASEAN partners.”China-Indonesia trainingFor Indonesia, military engagement with both powers reflects an effort to maintain balanced relationships, said Lin Ying-yu, a scholar of international affairs and strategic studies at Taiwan’s Tamkang University.“Indonesia hopes to use counterterrorism or nontraditional security issues to strengthen cooperation with China,” Lin told VOA.China’s Defense Ministry said troops participating in the exercise were organized into mixed formations for specialized training, tactical coordination and comprehensive drills. Activities include reconnaissance, communications, unmanned systems, sniping and counterterrorism training. Beijing described the exercise as a scheduled military exchange intended to improve combat-oriented training and bilateral cooperation.Indonesia-US tiesJakarta also has expanded its longstanding defense relationship with Washington.In April, Hegseth and Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin announced a Major Defense Cooperation Partnership. The countries agreed to explore advanced asymmetric capabilities involving maritime, undersea and autonomous systems, alongside expanded special forces training and efforts to improve readiness.In response to VOA’s questions about the China-Indonesia training, a State Department spokesman said defense and security cooperation with Indonesia is a core pillar of the countries’ Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.“Indonesia and the United States share a vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, including a commitment to freedom of navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the sea,” the spokesman said.“China should not exploit military cooperation with Indonesia to advance Beijing’s ambitions to dominate Southeast Asia politically, militarily, and economically,” the spokesman added.Hegseth’s Wednesday proposal would extend cooperation at the regional level. Citing the 50th anniversary of formal U.S.-ASEAN relations next year, he proposed developing “a practical framework that guides our cooperation over the next several years.”He identified maritime domain awareness, military interoperability and cooperation among navies as priorities, and said Washington was ready to begin work with Singapore as it assumes the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus chairmanship.International Afair Scholar Lin said Beijing, meanwhile, values Indonesia’s regional influence and could seek closer ties to counter the Philippines amid persistent South China Sea confrontations. China’s stated purpose for the training is counterterrorism cooperation.The ASEAN gathering concluded Thursday amid renewed friction between Beijing and Manila. China accused an unnamed Philippine politician of obstructing its participation, while Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said Beijing had been invited and given an opportunity to present its views. China was represented by a military attaché rather than its defense minister, Reuters reported.China-Indonesia military contacts also have drawn scrutiny in Taiwan. In August, Beijing announced naval exercises with Indonesia east of Taiwan, prompting Taipei’s condemnation. Indonesia described the activity as routine passing exercises rather than war-fighting drills.VOA has requested comment from both the Pentagon and the State Department on the China-Indonesia training but has not heard back yet.

VOA also requested comment from the Pentagon on the China-Indonesia training but has not heard back yet.

评论 · 3
C
Caleb30分钟前

我没那么确定,现在市场波动太大了。

L
Liam2小时前

盘口已经反应得差不多了,进场性价比不高。

S
Sofia3小时前

新闻里第 3 点才是关键,市场好像还没充分定价。

评论与发帖将在 M2 接入真实账户后开放