在2026年11月4日前，美伊是否签署关于霍尔木兹海峡和核问题的正式协议？
基于历史谈判成功率低及双方立场分歧，参考类似核谈基准率约20%，但当前谈判重启略增可能性，故定23%。
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Iran is ramping up political pressure on the United States in a bid to gain leverage, a leading Iran analyst warned Tuesday.
"This is a regime that knows it cannot win an outright battle of conventional capability," Foundation for Defense of Democracies Iran Program Senior Director Behnam Ben Taleblu said on Fox News' "America Reports."
"They're even fighting a battle of wills right now against the Trump administration, both on the battlefield and diplomatically," he added.
"Clearly they have some steel, but this is a regime that has shown us, in word and deed, over the past 47 years, that it will play to the edge and that it will gamble. Unfortunately, we're in a very tough situation right now," Taleblu added.
President Donald TrumpTaleblu also said no U.S. president has inflicted more damage on the Iranian regime than President Donald Trump, but argued that the administration has recently pulled back from several earlier threats.
"I think eight or nine — and even a newspaper run by Tehran's municipality basically said all of Trump's threats are watered down and that the U.S. is a paper tiger," he said.
"So this is a tough position for U.S. deterrence to be in right now, despite the good track record that the president has had."
Taleblu's remarks came as Qatar said Tuesday that mediators were making progress toward ending the war, although Tehran denied Trump's assertion that talks were already underway.
我没那么确定，现在市场波动太大了。
盘口已经反应得差不多了，进场性价比不高。
新闻里第 3 点才是关键，市场好像还没充分定价。